I’d covered the company
about 2 ½ years back ( reproduced at the end of this note for ease of
reference) Here goes a small update.
Market penetration
FMCG products in India (market penetration):
Toilet Soaps: 90-95%
Washing powder &
detergents bars: 85-90%
Hair Oil: 70-75%
Toothpaste: 60-65%
Shampoo:50-55%
Fairness Creams: 15-20%
Sanitary Pads: 10-12%
Sanitary Pads have an
absurdly low market penetration in India.
Just about 10-12% of the
35 crore odd menstruating women in India use sanitary Pads.
The number is between
90-95% for countries like UK, Germany, USA and about 50-60% for China &
Thailand.
Even Kenya has a penetration
of about 30% while for Uganda & Tanzania the number is about 15-16%
Even in Urban Areas in
India, not more than 2 out of every 10 menstruating women use sanitary pads.
Currently not more than
10-12% of sanitary pads sales are in rural areas in India
Market Development:
Over the last 8-10 years,
P&G has reached out to nearly 2 crore school girls across India and
provided education about menstrual cycles & provided free smaples.
In 2012-13, alone,
P&G reached out to nearly 40 lakhs girls across 15,000 schools
So, the market is far ,
far from being mature and remains wide open .P&G is doing all it takes to
not only grow the market but also retain its market share which is currently
about 57-58%.
P&G has a fantastic market coverage with contact to close to more than 7 lakh outets.
The entry of new players
like Sofy and new found aggression of J&J ( Stayfree) over the last few
years will only help in making the pie size larger .
At the current market
price of about Rs.3200, the market cap
is about Rs 10,400 cr and EV about Rs.9700 cr. It is my strong belief that the
company offers one of the most attractive and secular growth opportunities available in the Indian market.
At the time of writing this report,
the author /his family have an investment interest in the stock mentioned
above. Under no circumstance does the information in this report represent a
recommendation to buy or sell the above-mentioned stock. This report has
been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information,
internally developed data & other sources believed to be reliable. This is
just a suggestion solely for information purposes and does not constitute a
solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. While the information contained
therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no
responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents.
Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their
actions and are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments.
Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare: A
‘Period’ of huge growth ahead
Procter
& Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare (PGHH) is a 2 brand company: Vicks &
Whisper. These in turn have brand extensions.
We will
concentrate on Whisper.( Feminine Hygiene i.e.Sanitary Pads)
Feminine
hygiene is hygiene absorbent products engineered to absorb and retain body
fluid without causing any leakage. The user should always feel dry and
comfortable. It consists of an absorbent pad sandwiched between two sheets of
nonwoven fabric.
The
menstrual cycle starts for young women between the ages 11 - 17, frequently
around 12-1 3 years. On average a woman experiences a period every 28th
day, 12 - 13 times in a year. A menstrual period normally lasts 3 - 7 days. The
loss of fluid in a period is on average half a cup or 65 - 80 ml. The menstrual
pattern is influenced by giving birth and contraceptive methods. Menstruation
lasts until menopause at the age 45 - 55. The feminine hygiene products market
has evolved over more than 100 years to a more than US$ 20 bn.
PGHH has 2 plants and Baddi ( HP ) and 1 in Goa.
Promoters ( P&G, USA through its assocaites and subsidiaries) holds 70.64% of the paid up equity capital
PGHH Feminine Hygiene sales for the last 7 years:
2003-04:
Rs.142 cr
2004-05:
Rs.163.58 cr
2005-06:
Rs.226.8 cr
2006-07 :
Rs.282 cr
2007-08:
Rs.339.79 cr
2008-09:
Rs.428.28 cr
2009-10:
Rs.532 cr
2010-11 :
Rs.640 cr ( expected)
As can be
seen from the above, sales have grown by about 4.5 times over a 8 year
period.
Market
size for Feminine Hygiene products:
As per
Census 2010,
Total
women in India: approx 58.5 cr
Of these,
women in urban India : approx 16.25 cr
Women in
menstruating age in India : approx 30 cr
Of these,
women in urban India : approx 8 cr
At
present, the sanitary napkins market in India is estimated to be worth around
Rs 1,300 crore. PGHH market share is approx 50%.
Equity :
Rs.32.46 cr
Debt: Nil
Current
Market price: Rs.1950
Market
Cap: Rs.6330 cr
Cash in
hand (including loans to group companies) : Rs.432 cr ( as of June 30, 2010)
i.e. Rs.132 per share
Some of
the key negatives:
1) Excise duty on
sanitary pads was increased last year
2) Sanitary pads as a category has seen
increasing competitive pressure with entry of new players like Japanese Unicham
( brand ‘Sofy’), Mankind Pharma ( Don’t Worry) besides existing players like
J&J ( Stayfree), Kimberly Clarke( Kotex), Kaul High ( She) Gufic (Shapers-
this is a marginal player) leading to price corrections.
Programs
to reach to consumers:
1) Point of market
entry : about 24 lakh menstruating girls across private and public
schools all over India. Over the last 5 years, through this program, PGHH has
touched more than 70 lakh girls. In the urban schools, the top tier brand
‘Whisper’ was sampled while in the upcountry schools, the economical mid tier
‘Choice’ was sampled.
2) Direct to Home
program: This house to house program especially in the lower class towns is
aimed at educating women about the benefits of using sanitary napkins (Choice)
and breaking the affordability barrier. Over the last 5 years, through this
program, PGHH has touched close to 20 lakh women
3) Partnership
with National Rural Health Mission: Done initially in Rajasthan to provide
education and sanitary protection to rural women (cloth users) to help them
lead a healthier , hygienic and more productive life.
The
various initiatives being done by PGHH to open the future opportunities
‘pipeline’ have led to disproportionately high promotion expenses over the last
5 years. Though the benefits from these have been visible in terms of increased
category sales, these are but a small precursor to the unfolding of the real
explosion of demand which shall happen over the next 4 years.I hold the belief
that PGHH , unless there are any major unexpected obstacles, has the potential
to be valued at a market cap of Rs.20,000 cr over the next 4 to 5
years and presents an opportunity which may appear expensive at current price
to earnings but offers an investment in what shall pan out to be one of the
most lucrative product opportunities in the foreseeable future.
At the time of writing this report,
the author /his family have an investment interest in the stock mentioned
above. Under no circumstance does the information in this report represent a
recommendation to buy or sell the above-mentioned stock. This report has
been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information,
internally developed data & other sources believed to be reliable. This is
just a suggestion solely for information purposes and does not constitute a
solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. While the information contained
therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no
responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents.
Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their
actions and are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments.
